I was once told, that success breeds success and today has been one of those times.  From yesterday’s slight win, we have continued our climb from the cellar with a rousing 2% gain, and another 3% during after hours.  5% daily returns is something dreams are made of, and I hope that the nightmare isn’t right around the corner.

As I go through Chapter 3, the one thing that I’ve yet to understand, is how IFRX was ever in the $30-$50 per share range, with yearly losses growing at 100%.  I guess when you play with the stock market though, things like these happen.  Last year, IFRX had a EBITDA of -$44.41M, so it was only a matter of time before the price was rocked and dropped to its current $3.43.  What the question is though, is how does IFRX compare? To be honest, not bad.  Many biotech companies that trade within the ‘penny stock’ range, often have yearly losses until a drug or two makes a breakthrough, the company goes bankrupt, or it is absorbed by one of the larger pharmaceutical firms (Johnson/Johnson, Merck, Pfizer) at which time, the investor angels cash in, and move on.    

In the end, only time will tell if we climb out of this darkness but just remember that when you’re down, you never think you’ll be up again, but life goes on.  Maybe it’ll go on to that mythical $30 again and we can talk about how great life is again.

Ok, so I’ve been a little busy as of late.  What have I been doing that was just too much to spend a few minutes writing of how unpredictable IFRX can be? Laying groundwork for a future return of investment.  No, not researching stocks or buying other penny stocks, but planting crops on my day! (Father’s Day).  Its that time of the year to make sure that a few restless nights and long days in the sun make a return in 5 months (unlike my current stock selections).  But what has happened over the past week?  5% return of course.  10Am on 12JUN we were at $3.06, and today we’ve closed at $3.25.  Sure we’ve topped at $3.55, but that’s neither here nor there, lets just focus on a positive, ok? 

It is important to start looking at factors such as this, because that’s what Chap 2 is about; Competitive Advantage and statistical representation of organizational success or failure.  How does one measure a company against another? Because they have a better name? A better advertising agency? Of course not.  Numbers are everything in the world of business, and if an executive board cant correctly highlight what they are doing, they wont last long.  

In addition to numbers, we must always relate back to the intangibles.  What makes a company what it is, what sets it apart, what makes people keep coming back?  In the case of IFRX, they were a company that was focusing on a select number of treatments that other organizations were unable to cure.  What we have to examine though, is if what IFRX is trying to cure, is curable.  They’ve been losing millions in cash as they spend countless assets on R&D, on Clinical Trials, and other such adventures, only their flagship treatments, have yet to set sail and have rather spent more time shipwrecked than the Titanic.  Its time that a positive course is found with IFRX, or at least some positive news to turn their stock value around 

Today we can officially say that the flash in the pan has passed.  With a small 2.5% return, where do we go from here.  We started the day around $3.50, followed by a massive selloff, with a slow grind back to $3.36; should of sold at the high point but I wanted a larger return.  This has been a consistent story with IFRX.  Large in the first hour followed by a sell then slowly return to the start with maybe a slight gain.  If I had been selling and buying every day, a small fortune could have been made by now. 

When I began my eventual run into day-trading penny stocks, my strategy is what can be referred to as Emergent(chap 1.3).  I started off with visions of grandeur on one platform but transferred and augmented that vision as I was exposed to the market and the potential of options.  My initial foray was to augment my other investment ventures; real estate, IRAs, REITs, annuities, and basic mutual fund portfolios.  It was once I understood the game, that my competitive nature, my addictive personality, and my great tolerance for risk consumed me.  I became infatuated with finding the next win, the next profit, the next ‘I told you so’ moment.  While I haven’t had many wins over the last week I will say that overall my strategy has been great, once it changed that is.  The only question I have now though, is whether IFRX is going to maintain their course and standard operating procedure, or whether they are going to change pace now they are in the penny stock world.  As any penny stock investor knows, no news is bad news, but bad news can be good news, and right about now, I need some news to turn this red runner to a black beauty      

Today was a good day.  6.5% return after a horrible Tuesday; I suppose that’s a start, but far from where we need to climb back to (anything over 4 is a win at this point in time). 

The question we go back to, is once the original strategy doesn’t work, whats next.  Where is the strategic leadership doing right now.  How are they going to discuss the way forward with stock owners, the exec board, the workers and scientists.  I’d like to think that many of the clinical researchers are back at their desk, working on the next major breakthrough, working to solve the problems as to why the clinical trials failed, working to make things better.  I believe that true leadership is discovered when things are bad, not when they are great.  As someone who has worked for both great and horrible leaders, knowing how those above you respond under stress is important not only for your own personal mental health, but to better prepare once things go sideways.  

As we go through Chapter 1, we glide past the introduction, with a pit-stop at a Firm’s Mission, to find the meat of chapter 1, the process of adjusting the Firms mission.  Having a mission statement, is important.  It provides direction, purpose, and a sense of belonging.  The problem with leadership, is that they often focus too heavily on those select few words and believe that that is the be all, end all.  While that’s great to tell middle management, true leaders know that mission statements can will and do change over time as the organization changes and adapts.  Failure to adapt is the death to any person or organization.    If it was me in that board room, I’d say patience will get the stock price and returns back, and passion will develop the drugs…

So who/what exactly is, IFRX.  Anyone can look up the company, where its from, what they do, and what all their products are.   But to make this quick on you rather than spending the 5 seconds to Google or Bing or whatever website you want to use, IFRX is a ‘clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering and developing inhibitors using C5a technology primarily in the United States and Europe. Its C5a is an inflammatory mediator involved in the enhancement of a variety of autoimmune and other inflammatory diseases.’ 

As with many Biopharm type companies, much of their assets, resources, and activity is focused on very few items.  In the case of IFRX, much of the company was focused on IFX-2, which last week failed clinical trials.  As a result, their stock tumbled nearly 92% down to $3.  Their old strategy was to focus on these new treatments, now that the stock has crashed and their once lucrative drug has left them just like their stockholders, whats the new strategy?  What would you do if you got punched in the face

As we undertake this most excellent adventure together, I suppose we should discuss what exactly the purpose of this blog truly is…  entertainment!  and maybe a splash of education for those keeping score at home.  

During the next several weeks, I will be referencing the course textbook, “Gaining and Sustaining Competitive Advantage,” by Jay R Barney; 4th Edition.  As I read through each chapter, I will reference various topics, thoughts, ideas, or other random topics that I’d like to discuss and how they relate to our selected stock, IFRX

As we get into this chapter, we initiate our discussion and the popular card came, Blackjack.  As with gambling, stock picks are often about feelings, hunches, theories, or blind luck.  I’ve taken up stock trading by trying to pick runners, winners, and quick steals in order to improve my financial wellbeing.  I found initially that by picking stocks based off solid financial reports, returns, and positive social precense was boring to me.  I wanted fast, I wanted quick, I wanted pure pleasure.  What I failed to learn though, was that occasionally you need to learn from those strikeouts, those failures, and the big misses.  Picking stocks and card games go hand in hand.  

IFRX is one of these flyers.  This stock dumped 92% of its value during early morning hours on 5Jun.  Since then, the stock has dumped another 25% down to $2.91, where it has steadily climbed back to the current $3.30, with a few runs and falls between then and now.  I just need to hit blackjack within the next few days before I decide to fold on this hand and move to the next hand (should have picked NBY today – (900% return.  ugh)  

But with all this said, the one thing that has made businesses win time and time again, is patience.  knowing that good things come to those who wait (something I learned all those years hunting) will prove beneficial to me in the end, as with all stocks I’ve managed to hold out on for several weeks at a time.  at least that’s what section 1.1 is about…. strategy; or what I’ll talk about on the next installment.  

 

Thanks for joining me!

Over the past year, I’ve become very in-tune with my personal finances; whether that is through reading finance books, listening to podcasts, or setting out to make millions in the stock market.  As such, the idea that people have found careers as a blogger makes me desire for the days of writing from the couch or local coffee shop as I live out my days of ease.

With that being said, I am going to focus this initial blog on a new stock that I recently came across, as I watched it tumble nearly 92% of its stock value, InflaRx NV (IFRX).  I must disclose, that I am currently invested in this company, and will only report on current open-source reporting, financial statements, or other easily accessable information, as I attempt to relate business activities as it relates to my time as a student at the University of Memphis in the class, MGMT 7160 and class material.

Enjoy the ride!

Good company in a journey makes the way seem shorter. — Izaak Walton